PUBLISHER'S VIEWPOINT
January 2002
Why We'll Be Okay

Forecasting the market for foodservice equipment and supplies has been a challenge this year. I should be good by now; I’ve been practicing a lot. I did my first revision for MAFSI, the rep’s group, in late July. I’ve been doing at least one a month since. In November, I did two.

I’m not alone. Our friends at Technomic had the bad luck to stage their annual Forecast & Outlook Seminars, sponsored by IFMA, the week of Sept. 10. They published their first revision Sept. 26. The firm’s Joe Pawlak told me last week they were working on another revision that they hope to have ready by mid January. Nearly everybody in the forecasting game has the same problem.

It used to be I would call Randy Moore, executive editor at Blue Chip Economic Indicators, and Richard Curtin, who is director of consumer surveys for the University of Michigan, once a year. Last fall I stopped calling and subscribed to Blue Chip, and the folks at Michigan are nonprofit, so they put me on their e-mail press release list for free. Now I wait for the latest Blue Chip forecasts and University of Michigan indexes just like Alan Greenspan.

Of course, one still has to look at all this data and try to make sense of it. Moore had my favorite quote of the year. I called him in mid October to get the latest forecasts, and he laughed. He said, “I’ll give ’em to you, but understand, no one has a clue what’s going to happen. No one has seen anything like this.” And he’s talking about the leading economists in the world.

I’m making light of what is, of course, very serious business. It has not been a fun year for many folks in our business. MAFSI’s board of directors just polled themselves on year-to-year sales. Twelve of the 21 regions reporting were negative. A couple regions were off 25%. That’s not fun.

Our own surveys of dealers and consultants show quite a bit of deterioration in the last part of the year. Dealers dependent on downtown convention-related business in major cities have been hit hard. The Northwest is a mess. Florida and Nevada are a mess. Consultants have seen the hotel, recreation, airport and cruise ship markets dry up. Now they are worried about schools, colleges, corrections and other publicly funded work.

And in the midst of all this, the American public just keeps eating away from home. Most operators have seen traffic and sales hold through the whole ordeal. The really positive thing about this negative situation is the demonstration that Americans eat out no matter what. Really, no matter what. We’ll be okay.

Cheers and Happy New Year,

Robin Ashton
Publisher