PUBLISHER'S VIEWPOINT
April 2002
Back in the Black

I’m beginning to think the worst is over. That the U.S. economy and the E&S business—and we who make our living down the line—are moving in a positive direction. By the time you read this, this may seem like yesterday’s news, or I may look like an idiot. I’ll take the risk.

I’m writing this on a plane March 10 on the way home from Hamburg, Germany, where I’ve attended Internorga. In early February, Jennifer and I also went to London for Hotelympia. And in between, I spent some time in Miami Beach at the NAFEM Executive Summit with the bosses of the U.S manufacturers.

I mention this to say our view is at least inter-Atlantic. Brian and Rich are going to Singapore for Food & Hotel Asia 2002 this month, where it appears things are turning up too. I’ll let Brian report later.

Most manufacturers and operators in the U.S. and Europe, and the industry data recently released, confirm that business has begun to strengthen. For some operators, they never really declined, according to year-end numbers from NPD Foodworld, the tracking service used by most of the larger chains. Traffic at restaurants as a whole, including independents, rose 3% in NPD’s last quarter (September-November) vs. the previous quarter. Yup, you read that right: Traffic rose right through the worst of the post-9/11 doldrums. And chains did better than independents, which were off 2%, with smaller chain traffic rising 7%. These numbers come on the heels of five quarters of flat or only slightly rising traffic beginning third quarter 2000.

It appears Europe is running about six months behind us in this cycle, so operators are still a bit flat, if the anecdotal reports I heard in London and Hamburg are true. The U.K is the strongest big economy in Europe right now. A manager at a Café Flo in London told me his numbers have remained moderately positive for the past several months. Germany and Italy are the softest of the big EU economies. German and Italian manufacturers tell me it’s been soft in their markets for at least a year. My friend Gretel Weiss, who kindly invites me to Foodservice Forum before Internorga and edits Food Service Europe and Food Service, a chain-oriented magazine in Germany, reported the Top 100 multiunit groups in Germany had their worst year in a decade in 2001. But the mood in both London and Hamburg was upbeat, and customers were on hand.

Back home, nearly all the American manufacturers I have spoken with the past month say business is clearly improving. All of us who depend on you, dear reader, to feed our children, bless you, and urge you to buy a lot.

Cheers,

Robin Ashton
Publisher