PUBLISHER'S VIEWPOINT
February 2003
Reason's to be Thankful

As I write this we’re ramping up to a war. Bob O’Brien of NPDFoodworld tells us that his group’s year-end numbers show operators in all restaurant segments had their toughest year in 2002 in decades. Chain building is down. Schools and colleges that depend on public monies are having a tough time getting any capital. And this means plenty of equipment and supplies folks are scratching.

So why am I not letting all this bring me down? Because even with these challenges, we live in the best place at the best time in the history of the world. What follows are some reasons to be thankful that we do what we do:

• I sent my forecast to a manufacturer friend last week. He e-mailed back that his boss read through the forecast, threw it back at him and said “Argh! I don’t want to read that!” (It’s not like I’m predicting the end of the world, just an industry off a point or two.) But then came another e-mail that revealed this manufacturer  grew 18% last year. And on the operator side, just marvel at Starbucks. Reasons to  be thankful, part 1: This foodservice business, for operators and suppliers, is SO BIG, one can find a way to grow in the toughest times.
   

• I always explain to people that equipment and supplies is the capital goods part of foodservice and thus has more volatile swings. We estimate the E&S market was off 7% real in ’01 and off again about a point real in ’02. But I read a year or so ago that the machine tool business was off 80% in ’01. Yikers! Reasons to be thankful, part 2: Because foodservice has become fairly noncyclical we don’t swing as wildly as some other industries.
   

• I have just returned from a dealer golf outing in Phoenix sponsored by a major manufacturer. I presented the forecast there and then hung out with friends—I can’t name the dealers, either, since they are suppliers, too!—many of whom I’ve known for more than 20 years. Reasons to be thankful, part 3: Our part of foodservice is a very small town. I often say a lot of the business is a thousand people  calling on two thousand people. That’s nonsense—after all we send this magazine  to more than 30,000 of you—but it’s still a small community in which friends help  each other out, within competitive necessity.

I’ve often heard that no one gets paid for the easy times. This is a challenging environment, but, you know, we like it so much we started our own magazine.

Cheers,

Robin Ashton
Publisher