In This Section:
Shameless Promo Dept.:
FER Forecast Meeting Dates Set
Most Economic Fundamentals 'Solid,' U.S. Chamber Of Commerce Economist Tells MAFSI
Blue Chip Forecast Slips Again, But Improvement Coming
This issue's Regulatory Report Sponsor: Delfield Co./Enodis
Industry ReportSponsor: FER E&S Market Forecast Meetings
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Shameless Promo Dept.:
FER Forecast Meeting Dates Set
Foodservice Equipment Reports, our sister publication in paper, this year will once again conduct two forecast seminars to help senior executives of equipment and supplies manufacturing companies and others in the industry plan for the year ahead. The first meeting, the 2008 E&S Market Forecast President's Preview, will be held this coming Aug. 1 at the Eaglewood Resort & Spa in Itasca, Ill. The second, the E&S Market Forecast Focus on Channels, is slated for Oct. 25 at the Embassy Suites O'Hare near Chicago.
Both meetings feature FER's exclusive, hard-number forecasts of E&S market growth for '07 and '08, analysis of general economic and operator metrics and trends, materials price forecasts and exclusive data on E&S price changes from AutoQuotes.
The President's Preview will kick off with an open forum of leading operators and also include an analysis of the Top 100 E&S Manufacturers from John Muldowney, principal at Clarity Marketing, and an overview of the E&S mergers and acquisitions climate by Ron Rosati, principal of Ronald Rosati Business Brokerage Services.
The price of the President's Preview, including all data and presentations in both print and digital forms, is $849 through July 6, $949 afterwards.
Focus On Channels will feature, in addition to the forecast and price information, panels discussing channel issues, with a special look this year at service issues being developed in cooperation with the Commercial Food Equipment Service Association. Further information on the programs, costs and registration forms are available at http://www.fermag.com/events/index.htm or by calling the magazine at 800/986-9616.
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Most Economic Fundamentals 'Solid,' U.S. Chamber Of Commerce Economist Tells MAFSI
Income and spending growth are supporting continued real growth of the U.S. economy, according to Dr. Martin Regalia, chief economist of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Regalia provided a cogent overview June 13 of current and future economic issues at the Manufacturers' Agents Association for the Foodservice Industry 2007 Annual Conference in Boston.
Regalia noted that real personal consumption spending is being supported by both growth of real income and continuing jobs growth. Since consumer spending comprises two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this moderate growth in the 3% range is overcoming downturns in both housing and business investment. He added he believes the housing slump has already hit bottom and that its effect on the overall economy was less than some had feared. Core inflation also appears to be moderating. And he expects growth to continue for at least another year or so.
But he did caution that '09 could bring a convergence of negative forces to the economy all at once. The last two expansions have lasted eight to nine years, and the current growth cycle began in '01. Also the tax cuts passed early in the Bush presidency are scheduled to sunset in '10, with a strong possibility Democrats will be in control of Congress, the White House or both. Finally, productivity growth has slowed dramatically during the last year, and the positive Social Security cash flow that has supported Federal government finances will reverse itself.
"In the short run, the economy is doing pretty darn well," Regalia concluded. "But just over the horizon, the next folks will deal with a whole bunch of new problems."
Blue Chip Forecast Slips Again, But Improvement Coming
A much slower than expected first quarter has led the more than 50 leading economists polled monthly by Blue Chip Economic Indicators to cut their consensus forecast of real growth of U.S. gross domestic product to 2.1% for 2007, down a tenth point from last month's forecast. The Commerce Department now pegs first quarter growth at a slight 0.6%.
But the economists also believe the economy will experience a quick turn and then improve toward the trend rate of 3% real growth through the year and into '08. The forecast for second quarter growth rose to 2.8%, the third quarter forecast is 2.6% and that for the fourth quarter 2.9%. The forecast for '08 remained unchanged at 2.9%.
On a bit of a worrisome note for foodservice, the economists do predict a slowdown in real personal consumption expenditures. While they actually increased their consensus forecast for the year to 3.2%, they expect the quarterly rate to fall to only 2.1% in the second quarter before rising back to 2.6% and 2.5% in the third and fourth quarters. The PCE forecast for annual growth next year is a bit slower at 2.8%.
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