Technomic Revises Operator Sales Forecast Down For 2011

The surge in gasoline and food prices and the resulting dampening of consumer confidence (see article below) led Technomic Inc. to revise downward its forecast for operator sales in 2011. The Chicago-based research firm also revised upward its estimate of menu price inflation.

The result is that Technomic now forecasts higher nominal operator sales and lower real sales than either its original ’11 forecast last September or its January revision. Total industry real sales are now expected to fall 0.6% while current dollar growth will be 2.8%. The inflation estimate has risen to 3.5%, from 2.5% in January and 2% last September.

The research firm cut its forecasts across many industry segments. Total real sales at restaurants and bars are now predicted to fall 0.8%, vs. a forecast decline of 0.1% in January and 0.3% last September. Full service took at half-point hit on current dollars to 1.5% and is now forecast to show a real decline of 1.9% this year. Real foodservice sales at bars and taverns were revised down two full points to -1.5%. The firm left the forecast for limited-service restaurant real sales flat.

In “Beyond Restaurants” categories, the forecast for real sales at retail stores including supermarkets and c-stores went from +0.7% in January to -0.7% in the May revision. The forecast for healthcare foodservice was also revised downward into negative territory. Travel and leisure segments, business and industry and “other” categories including caterers, military and corrections saw their forecasts improve slightly.

Information on Technomic research products is available at technomic.com.      “””