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Most Macro Forecasts Slip In August Blue Chip Survey

The outlooks for growth of real gross domestic product the rest of this year and next fell again in the latest survey of 50 major economic forecasting groups published by Blue Chip Economic Indicators in early August. The forecast for growth on income and consumer spending next year also fell.

The 2012 real GDP forecast actually rose 0.1 point to 2.1% on an annualized basis, mostly because of revisions of several benchmark numbers upon which GDP is based. But the forecast for GDP growth in both the third and fourth quarter this year were down. For next year, the GDP forecast slipped from 2.3% to 2.1%.

Real disposable income growth is pegged at only 1.7% next year, down from 1.8% in the July survey. And real personal consumption expenditures are expected to manage only 2% growth in ’13, down from a forecast 2.2% in last month’s survey.

Meanwhile, the outlook in Europe continues to deteriorate more rapidly. The forecasting group dropped its consensus forecast for real GDP growth in the United Kingdom this year 0.4 point to a decline of 0.3% and cut next year’s growth to 1.1%. The Eurozone also is expected to be in recession this year, with a current forecast of -0.5% and growth of only 0.4% next year.

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