NRA Performance Index Slowed Sharply In July

Pushed lower by strong declines in same-store sales and traffic, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance fell 1.1 points in July, which left the index just barely in expansion territory at 100.2. All eight of the index indicators were down, and it was the lowest reading since last October. The index has been positive for 14 consecutive months. Both capital expenditure markers fell moderately in the July survey.

The current situation same-store sales and traffic indicators took big hits. The index for same-store sales fell 2 points and that for customer traffic 3.1 points. The labor component fell 1.2 points helping push the Current Situation Index (CSI) down 1.7 points. The CSI ended at 99.8, below the 100 level that separates expansion form contraction.

The Expectations Index was a bit less volatile, but still fell 0.6 point to 100.7. The outlook for same-store sales was down 0.9, that for future staffing fell 0.4 and the six-month outlook tracking expectation of business conditions dropped 0.6 point. Only 22% of operators expect economic conditions to improve during the next six months, the lowest reading in 10 months.

The marker tracking operators that made a capital purchase in the past three months fell 0.3 point as the percentage who spent money on equipment and facilities fell to 46% from 48% in June. The percentage of operators that intend to buy capital goods during the next six months fell to 49% in July from 51% in June, pushing the indicator down to 99.8, off 0.3 point.