Blue Chip Forecasts For 2013 And ’14 Hold Steady

Forecasts for growth of real GDP in the U.S. held steady in the latest consensus forecasts of economists polled by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The forecast of growth of disposable personal income and consumer spending next year did deteriorate slightly.

The current forecast for real GDP growth remained at 1.6% for this year and 2.6% in 2014 according to the survey conducted Oct. 2 and 3. The forecasts for real DPI held for 2013 at 0.6%, but that for personal consumption expenditures fell 0.1 point to 1.9%. But Blue Chip cautioned that most economists expect GDP growth to fall by 0.1 point for each week of the federal government shutdown, now well into its second week. And the consequences of a failure to lift the federal debt ceiling they term “dire.”

The forecasts for both real DPI and PCE for 2014 were down 0.1 point each to 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively.