Foodservice Equipment Reports

Blue Chip Forecasters Still Expect Rest Of 2015 To See 3%+ Real GDP Growth

Yes, the first quarter of 2015 turned out much worse than anyone expected, thanks to the strike that affected West Coast ports, another harsh winter and problems with federal Bureau of Economic Analysis seasonal adjustments. But the 50 leading economic forecasters polled monthly by Blue Chip Economic Indicators see a strong “snap-back” with stronger growth for the remainder of 2015.

The consensus forecasts for real growth of gross domestic product and personal consumption spending are precisely the same on an annualized quarterly basis for the rest of the year: 2.7% in the 2Q, 3.2% 3Q and 3% 4Q. On an annual basis, the economists dropped their 2015 real GDP forecast to 2.2% in June from 2.5% in May, but that was all a result of the downward final revision to the 1Q, which came in at a 0.7% decline. The GDP forecast for 2016 remained at 2.8% for the third consecutive month.

For the full year, the June Blue Chip consensus forecasts for real disposable personal income growth are 3.4% for ’15 and 2.5% for ’16. Real personal consumption spending is forecast at 2.9% for ’15 and 2.8% for ’16. DPI and PCE, along with employment trends, are the key macroeconomic drivers of foodservice spending. Strong jobs growth is forecast to continue through 2015 and into 2016, though at a slower rate than was seen in 2014.

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