NRA’s Performance Index Fell Back In November From 10-Year High In October

The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index remained at a very high post-recession level in November, despite falling from a mark in October not seen since December 2004. The overall index fell 0.7 point to 102.1 as the Current Situation Index dropped 1.6 points. But the Expectations Index continued to rise, pushing 0.3 point higher, an indicator that bodes well for the first part of 2015. The November survey marked the 21^st consecutive month that the RPI stood above 100, the point that delineates expansion vs. contraction. Both capital-expenditures indicators were off moderately, although they remain in positive territory.

Driving the overall decline were big drops in current same-store sales and customer traffic, following equally big surges in the October survey. Both indicators fell 2.3 points; however, the same-store sales indicator remains at a strong 103.5 while the traffic market is still well above the 100 tipping point at 101.5. The current situation labor component, which tracks the number of employees and hours worked, fell 1.6 points to land at 100.

Three of the four components of the Expectations Index rose in November. The outlook six months out for same-store sales rose 0.4 point, the outlook for staffing was up half a point and respondents’ view of future business conditions gained 0.6 point.

The two capital-purchasing indicators remained reasonably strong, in spite of moderate declines. The marker tracking purchases during the past three months fell 0.6 point to 100.7; 54% of those surveyed reported a purchase, down slightly from 57% in the October survey. The indicator for operators planning a capital buy in the next six months declined 0.4 point to 101.3. Of those surveyed, 57% planned to purchase equipment or improve facilities, down very slightly from 59% in October.

The complete Restaurant Performance Index is available at restaurant.org.  “””