U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts Remain Weak

The forecasts for key economic drivers of foodservice remained weak in the early November survey of 50 leading economic forecast groups, according to Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The forecast for real gross domestic product in the U.S. rose slightly to 2.2% for 2012, thanks to a stronger than expected advance GDP number for the third quarter. But the GDP forecast for next year stayed at 2%.

More worrisome, 90% of the forecasters expect that lawmakers will allow the temporary payroll-tax cut that has been in force the past two years to expire at the beginning of the year. The expiration will pull an estimated $125 billion in personal disposable income out of the economy. The consensus forecast for real disposable personal income growth in ’13 dropped to 1.3% from 1.5%.