Blue Chip Long-Range Forecasts Hold Steady

According to the 50 econometric groups surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators each month, better times are indeed ahead. While in the March survey the group kept their 2013 consensus forecast at 1.9% growth of real gross domestic product and lowered the 2014 forecast a bit to 2.7%, they have maintained their long-range forecasts through 2019, compared with their forecasts six months ago.

The forecast for real GDP growth for ’15 remains at 3.1%, 2.9% for ’16 and 2.8% for ’17. The forecast for real growth of disposable personal income rose to 3% for ’15, up from 2.9%, and to 2.9% in ’16, also a tenth point higher. The forecasts for personal-consumption expenditures held steady at 2.7% in both ’15 and ’16.

The forecasts for unemployment also improved, with the ’15 forecast at 6.7% and the ’16 forecast at 6.3%. Both are two-tenths better than the October forecasts.