Technomic: Declines To Continue In 2011

Technomic Inc. predicts foodservice operator sales will fall 0.3% in real terms next year, an unprecedented fourth consecutive year of real sales declines. The Chicago-based research group unveiled the numbers Sept. 23 during the annual Forecast & Outlook Conference sponsored annually by the International Foodservice Manufacturers Association. Nominal sales are forecast to rise 1.7% in 2011.

For reference, Technomic estimates operator sales fell 3.6% in ’08 and 5.9% in ’09 in real terms. The current forecast for this year is a real decline of 1.2%.

“The big issues facing foodservice are painfully slow jobs growth and the outlook for disposable income,” Technomic’s V.P. Joe Pawlak told our sister publication, e-newsletter FER Fortnightly. The current forecast for real Disposable Personal Income is a mere 1.4% growth this year and only 2.1% next, according to the latest consensus forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Total ’11 real sales at restaurants and bars is forecast to fall 0.4% next year, following a 1.4% real decline this year. Quick service is predicted to be flat while full service is forecast to post a 1% decline.

On the other hand, in an unusual turn, many noncommercial operator segments are expected to outperform commercial segments next year. Colleges and universities, lodging, senior living and supermarket foodservice all are projected to show real growth, as are schools, hospitals and military foodservice.

Information on Technomic research products can be found at foodpubs.com. “””