2015 Foodservice Growth In Canada Forecast To Be As Good Or Better Than 2014

The Canadian foodservice market has been outperforming many other developed foodservice markets around the globe. Two major groups forecasting the market, the national foodservice association Restaurants Canada and U.S.-based Technomic Inc., see another year of decent growth in 2015.

Technomic’s recently released 2015 forecast has nominal growth for the industry up slightly to 4.1% from 4% in 2014. Factoring out menu-price inflation of 2% for 2014 and 1.9% for ’15, real growth is expected to improve to 2.2% in ’15 versus 2% last year. RC earlier forecast that the market would grow 4% in 2015 in current dollars, the same rate of growth as ’14. Technomic estimates the total market, using “commercial equivalents” for certain noncommercial segments, at C$80.2 billion. RC, which counts the noncommercial segments differently, estimates the market at C$71.8 billion in ’14.

Among the segments, limited-service restaurants are expected to post 4.4% nominal growth this year, up from 4.1% in ’14 and higher than full-service restaurant growth, pegged at 3.9% in both years. Recreation, lodging, senior living facilities (not long-term care) and social caterers are forecast to show above trend growth.

RC forecasts that western provinces including Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, whose economies are driven by the growth of the natural resources industry, including oil and gas, will grow faster than the 4% trend this year, as will Nova Scotia, where the economy is driven by tourism. RC also expects growth to average 4% on an annual basis through 2018.