Macroeconomic Forecasts Remain Positive For U.S., Fall In Canada And Mexico

Consensus forecasts for macroeconomic indicators that drive foodservice remain positive for the rest of 2015 and 2016, according to the September tallies in Blue Chip Economic Indicators. But 2015 forecasts of real gross domestic product growth fell for Canada and Mexico and were off sharply in Brazil and Russia. Most leading developed and developing markets still are forecast to show moderately better growth in 2016.

The Blue Chip consensus forecast for real GDP growth in the U.S. this year rose 0.1 point to 2.5%, thanks mostly to stronger than anticipated growth in the second quarter, during which GDP surged 3.7%. On a quarterly annualized basis, growth is forecast at 2.5% 3Q and 2.7% 4Q. The forecast for annual real GDP growth next year remains at 2.7%.

The forecasts for real disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditure growth for 2015 and ’16 did not change in the September newsletters. Real DPI is forecast to grow 3.2% this year and 2.6% in’16. Real PCE growth is predicted at 3% this year and 2.9% next. Growth of incomes and spending at these levels bode well for foodservice spending throughout the period.

GDP forecasts for 2015 fell for both Canada and Mexico. Canada has been negatively impacted by the fall in commodities demand and prices, especially for oil. The BC consensus forecast for real GDP growth in Canada this year fell to just 1.2% from August’s 1.4% forecast. The forecast improves to 2.1% real GDP growth next year. The forecasts for real GDP growth in Mexico in 2015 fell from 2.6% last month to 2.3% in the September newsletter and 2016’s forecast dropped to 2.9% from the previous 3.2%.

The economies of Russia and Brazil also are hobbled by the drop in commodities and oil prices, in addition to Western sanctions in the case of Russia and a major corruption scandal in Brazil. Real GDP now is forecast to contract 3.7% in Russia and 1.9% in Brazil this year. Both are forecast to show barely positive GDP growth in ’16.