Overall restaurant traffic was flat in the first quarter 2016 in the U.S., according to the latest CREST data from The NPD Group. And the Rosemont, Ill.-based research group expects more of the same. “All in all, the restaurant industry has been conducting business in a 1% world since 2010 and will continue at the same pace for several more years,” the firm wrote in a June 7 press release.
But in the midst of this stagnant customer-count environment, breakfast and discounted combo meals are showing strength. In the first quarter, breakfast/morning meal visits increased 2% compared to the first quarter in 2015, and increased by 4% at quick-service restaurants, The impact of McDonald’s all-day breakfast program helped push servings of breakfast foods 8% higher, with breakfast sandwiches and other breakfast foods topping the list of fastest-growing menu items.
The combo-meal war among the major hamburger QSRs also helped drive traffic growth in the quarter. Visits involving deals rose 2% for the industry overall and 3% at QSRs. The average deal rate at hamburger QSRs is now up to 35%, but the strategy is clearly driving visits higher.
One other interesting aspect of traffic patterns in the first quarter was that visits to fast-casual concepts were flat. But the overall results were attributed completely to Chipotle’s woes following a food safety problem in 2015; visits to fast-casual brands other than Chipotle rose 5% in the quarter.
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