NRA’s Performance Index Swung Positive In September; Cap-Ex Measures Very Strong

The volatility seen in recent months in the National Restaurant Association’s monthly Restaurant Performance Index continued in the September survey, conducted during October. After crashing in August, current same-store sales and customer traffic surged in September, pushing the overall index back into expansion territory at 100.8 on a 1.2 point gain. Any component value above 100 signals expansion. The two indicators in the RPI that track capital spending both rose and remain at historically high levels.

The four-component Current Situation Index was up 2.5 points as same-store sales jumped 3.7 points and the current traffic component surged 4.2 points. Both now are above the 100 tipping point. The labor component, which tracks employee head counts and hours worked rose 0.9 point.

The Expectations Index, on the other hand, was flat at 100.6, as both anticipated same-store sales and the outlook for business conditions fell 0.3 point each. The outlook for staffing was flat.

The Current Situation component that tracks operators’ capital spending for the past three months jumped up 1.1 points, to reach 102.4 as 62% of those surveyed said they made a capital buy; that’s up from 57% in August. The indicator that measures operators’ capital spending intentions the next six months rose 0.3 point to 102.7; 64% of survey respondents plan a capital purchase, up from 62% in August.

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